Another victory for the ‘Old Man’; or will the opposition walk into State House? Anything is possible.
The biggest handicap of the MDC is the seeming inability and unwillingness of the two factions to reunite or at least co-operate. The larger faction, headed by ex-union leader Morgan Tsvangirai, has its stronghold in Harare. The second wing, led by Arthur Mutambara, dominates Bulawayo and the two Matabeleland provinces – which greatly suffered under Mugabe during the Gukurahundi era of the 1980s.
The failure of the two factions to reunite for the elections has frustrated many voters, especially since the main stumbling block seems to have been the threat of fewer positions and offices. Bargaining behaviour is obviously not limited to the ruling party. Due to the split in the MDC, in some districts several MDC candidates compete against one another – a situation that will weaken the opposition further in Zimbabwe’s first-past-the-post system.
Split Opposition
More recently, Simba Makoni has shaken up Zimbabwe’s political landscape. The long term ZANU-PF member and ex-Minister of Finance (2000-2002) in Mugabe’s cabinet declared in February 2008 that he would run for President as an independent candidate.
Even though an additional candidate will split the opposition vote even further, Simba’s candidacy makes a prediction much more difficult. Under this new configuration it could happen that Mugabe misses the necessary absolute majority in the first ballot. The outcome of a second ballot would be even more difficult to predict; and Morgan Tsvangirai could stand a realistic chance if Simba Makoni decided to call on his supporters to vote for Tsvangirai.
On the other hand, some analysts argue that such a ’miracle’ is unlikely because even if the ’carrot and stick’ system built on patronage and intimidation fails, Mugabe will simply rig and steal yet another election.
What is to Become of the 'Old Man'
Even if the ’Old Man’ is to stay, however, the political landscape in Zimbabwe has already changed. That an old companion of Mugabe’s dares to challenge him already indicates a transformed quality in Zimbabwean politics.
It seems that Zimbabweans are beginning to slowly free themselves from Mugabe’s iron grip. All of a sudden, more and more independent candidates are running in several constituencies. Opposition rallies are attracting thousands of supporters – especially since Makoni has ’come out’. To some extent, the MDC has even been able to campaign in rural areas which had not been the case in previous elections. The regime seems stricken, and some Zimbabweans who were mostly hopeless only a few weeks ago now feel renewed enthusiasm.
What will a post-elections Zimbabwe look like?
However, this new spirit cannot hide the fact that it will be extremely tough for the opposition to compete with ZANU-PF’s nationwide structures and sophisticated PR machinery.
Simba Makoni has not had enough time to substantiate his presidential bid and to gain considerable public support, especially in the rural areas. The MDC comes across as inconsistent and fragmented. Against this background, it seems as if Mugabe will be able to score his 6th consecutive victory.
What will a post-elections Zimbabwe look like? We will have to wait and see. In the best case, a government of national unity or tentative reforms under ZANU-PF seem possible. In the worst case there might be a bloody uprising or the military could intervene in case of an opposition win. Anything is possible.
Dr Antonie Katherina Nord
Regional Director
Dirk Spilker
Head of Programmes
Heinrich Böll Stiftung Southern Africa